There is a quiet, rhythmic stagnation settling over sectors in the U.S. consumer products industry. When you take a breath to process your favorite products’ packaging, the ads in your streaming subscriptions, and the creative storytelling coming from our storied corporations…. do you notice anything familiar? Feel like you’ve seen that before?
If you’re noticing this “efficiency winter” like me, we’re witnessing a phenomenon called the Exploration-Exploitation Dilemma. Happening now, institutional corporations are using AI to chase ludicrous profit margins after slashing their workforces. We are watching a systemic creative retreat; some artists might call it a creative crisis…
This “Predictability” is replacing creativity. Here’s what we will be shown by several storied brands this year. Expect more “less for more.” Welcome to 2026.
10% resource allocation for innovation and creativity can mean the difference between another Superman reboot and a new Harry Pottersphere.
2026 will be the Year of Cherry for Coca-Cola as they bank on Cherry Coke’s past success. A fixture of the self-service machine that had been intermittently available over the last 40 years, Cherry Coke will be pushed back into the mainstream conversation. I like cherry coke. I wonder how I’ll feel about it in 2027.
Another Superman Reboot…? Warner Bros. is currently executing a three-year plan built mostly on sequels and reboots of their DC properties, while Disney has been dusting off several of my childhood’s classics in recent years. The reboots aren’t doing it for GenX and Millennials (I need to take a poll with GenZ). The most entertaining thing, for me, about watching Superman 2025 was playing a mental game of “what’s different” from the ‘78 Christopher Reeves’ version (which was itself… a reboot…). SPOILER: Clark/Superman and Lois are in some sort of “situationship.”
The Success Trap
Creative stagnation is a symptom of the well-documented crisis in organizational learning known as the Exploration-Exploitation Dilemma. This describes a fundamental choice between two competing strategies.
Exploitation is refining what you already know for a reliable result.
Exploration is trying something new to find a better outcome.
Reboots, redo’s, and duplication that rely on AI don’t include long-term innovation. When corporations set meteoric profit growth and replace people with AI to reach it, exploitation wins and creative exploration is defeated. Blockbuster Video doubled-down on exploitation.
This is called The Success Trap.
Innovation Only Needs 10% of Your Resources
The reality is that many corporations are stuck in a performance loop. They’re built like high-speed trains with a dogmatic boss waiting at the station: incredibly efficient on straight tracks, but too big/long/fast to turn if the landscape suddenly changes. Even when consumers ask for something else, they’re too invested in their architecture to risk a pivot, so they give us the same thing in a different skin.
But for small and mid-sized businesses, the AI revolution presents a uniquely different opportunity. Companies in their first 10 years in business are still nimble and solidifying their brand identity. With big wins and rough losses, the innovation they chose kept them alive through COVID. Calculated risk remains the name of the game for a sustainable SMB.
To always leave a little room for innovation, SMBs can use a classic framework: the 70/20/10 Rule.
- 70% of Budget/Time (Low Risk): Exploiting what works. This keeps the lights on and satisfies the need for predictable ROI.
- 20% of Budget/Time (Medium Risk): Improving or evolving the “predictable reboots.” This is a “Shared Journey” toward something better, like testing a new content pillar or advertising channel.
- 10% of Budget/Time (High Risk): Pure exploration. Radical ideas with no guaranteed ROI. Exploit AI for consumer-focused creativity, automation innovation, and net-new ideas.
Using predictability for profit doesn't have to be a creativity killer.
Sources:
March, J. G. (1991). Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning. Organization Science, 2(1), 71–87.
The Exploration-Exploitation Dilemma: A Multidisciplinary Framework | HBS Faculty Research: Teresa Amabile on Creativity and Management.
